I responded to this below, but figured I'd pull it out for a topic.
It's pretty easy to figure out in the AHL finances, or at least to be in the ballpark within a few hundred thousand dollars.
I might be wrong, but I wouldn't be willing to risk any of my money on it. The Frankes lost a lot of money during the last five years of the IHL, so what would their be incentive to take another leap? I'm not even sure it's really a case of would fans be willing to spend more for tickets because I don't think you could find owners willing to take the gamble here, Frankes or anyone else.
Manchester 0 310,389 36 8,622
W-B/Scranton 0 285,082 35 8,145
Manitoba 0 301,654 38 7,938
Chicago 0 278,018 36 7,723
Hershey 0 299,995 39 7,692
Rochester 0 254,107 36 7,059
Philadelphia 0 258,347 37 6,982
Providence 0 251,744 37 6,804
Grand Rapids 0 240,239 38 6,322
Houston 0 212,435 37 5,741
Syracuse 3,904 194,652 36 5,407
Iowa 0 191,908 37 5,187
Hartford 0 184,944 37 4,998
Milwaukee 0 194,325 39 4,983
Hamilton 0 182,452 37 4,931
Portland 0 177,120 37 4,787
Peoria 0 170,939 36 4,748
Toronto 0 158,927 36 4,415
San Antonio 0 155,535 36 4,320
Norfolk 0 151,843 36 4,218
Binghamton 0 149,656 37 4,045
Albany 0 151,703 38 3,992
Bridgeport 0 140,144 39 3,593
Lowell 0 132,606 37 3,584
Cleveland 0 128,514 37 3,473
Springfield 0 124,334 36 3,454
Omaha 0 119,797 38 3,153
League 3,904 5,401,409 998 5,412
Educated guess is that anything under 5,000 is losing money or scraping by. Say they average $10-$12 REVENUE per ticket. That's only at the most $1.5 million in revenue for the year on a $2.5-$3 million (or more) budget. I believe, not positive, but NHL affiliations cost between $800,000 and $1.2 million, plus they don't give you all the players anymore so you have to go out and sign 5-6 free agents to fill out the roster. Office staffs are also larger, as is workers compensation (up to $300,000 in some places), insurance costs, travel costs (up to $250-$500,000), league fees (around $150,000), housing, etc. It's not that hard to figure it out. That doesn't even take into account any revenue for advertising or concessions or parking (The Komets don't get concessions or parking or suites). I've been told when Kalamazoo draws 4,500, it's equivalent to the Komets drawing 8,000 because the Wings get the concessions and parking.
Advertising revenue and souvenirs combined are big, but not that big. There's a huge difference when you own the building.
Why do you think the AHL has either A) lost so many teams or B) moved so many teams over the past few years? Why isn't Cincinnati playing anymore? That was a good hockey town, or Salt Lake, or Las Vegas? Why are all the teams in the ECHL South dying? Look at those attendance figures for Milwaukee, Lowell, Springfield, Albany, and even how far Grand Rapids has fallen. Those would scare me to death if I were the Frankes.
It's not rocket science. I simply don't believe FW fans will pay $5 more per ticket to go to the AHL. I know a lot of you would, but not enough to make it financially feasible. I miss those days, too, but we've got to be realistic. No, the UHL isn't the IHL, but it is improving who knows? Someday it might be again.
I also don't believe the sole focus of the AHL is winning as much as it is developing NHL players, and I don't think that would ever go over here. FW fans demand to win. The first time the coach puts a rookie on the power play instead of a veteran because the NHL wants it that way, FW fans would scream bloody murder, not to mention losing your best players at playoff time because the NHL wants to expand its playoff roster.