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Opening Arguments

Flukesville

Not exactly a big shock:

From the states that he won in 2008, Democratic operatives believe that President Obama will have the most difficulty carrying Indiana again when he runs for reelection, according to a special National Journal Political Insiders Poll released on Tuesday.

[. . .]

Following the Hoosier State, the next four states that the Democratic Insiders predicted would be the hardest for Obama to carry were: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.

[. . .]

“There's no way he keeps Indiana; the economy and weakness of Indiana Democrats makes this exceedingly difficult,” said one Democratic Insider. Echoed another: “It's the state most reliant on manufacturing and that helped in '08, but now hurts Obama.” And a third Democratic Insider observed that Indiana “went red in last election; was fluke he won there in 2008.”

Don't now if "fluke" is the quite the way to put it. That makes it sound sort of accidental. "Oops, it appears I have voted for a Democrat; however did that happen?" Voters here had the same discontents and expectations as those elsewhere in the country. Maybe we're just smarter and quicker to realize our mistakes.

If Indiana were more in play, we might get the same attention from the national political crowd we enjoyed last time around. But if we're the least likely to stay Democratic, don't look for a lot of TV ads and visits by national figures. Sigh. Ignored again.

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