My only concern with all of this is why are we sure it's better in another league? That is not meant as a criticism but a legitimate question. The number of teams should not be the only factor, either, because the UHL proved that just means you can lose them.
I'm not convinced it is better in another league, and I haven't had that question answered to my satisfaction yet. Over 20 years, I've seen a lot of crap come and mostly go. There were just as many BS artists in the old IHL as there were with the new. It's the same in every league. It's always been amazing to me how people who made their money in another business can become so stupid in this one.
I have yet to hear a solid plan plan for minor league hockey. That's one reason why the new IHL at the time was interesting -- it seemed to have a plan. Then the economy bombed.
I think this is a minor league hockey business problem, not necessarily just an IHL problem. The IHL is not stable right now, and I'm tired of that, too, but I'm not convinced any of the other leagues won't be facing the same problems next year (or aren't right now). Look at the attendance figures and multiply by $10, and you can easily see the numbers don't add up to the costs.
So if the Komets are going to move, it has to be to a league that has a solid plan on how to attack these problems. Just saying these problems are going to go away is laughable. Just moving to another league isn't good enough without a plan. Then you might as well stay in the IHL and try to tough it out because at least here you can control costs a little.
It's become obvious to me the minors are not going to restructure along geographical lines which just proves my point because that is their best chance at stability and survival. If they aren't going to do that, why would things necessarily be better in another league for the Komets or other IHL teams?
I don't think junior hockey is going to work in these markets just because the costs are lower, and it's not a given that moving to another league is an answer, either, just to, well, move to another league. How will either of those be different to the average Joe fan? Just going juniors or moving leagues doesn't necessarily answer that question. It might buy them more time to come up with a plan, but that's not guaranteed, either.
The fans who take the time to blog consistently are not the major concern, because you will more than likely show up no matter what league they are playing in. That's not a knock on anyone's intelligence, loyalty or whatever, just an observation based on the Komets having the same 3,000-4,000 core fan base for 58 years. It has not increased or decreased a ton during all that time. That's the same fan base that shows up on Monday nights for playoff games. That's your core audience. There's another 2,500-3,500 fans on top of that that show up based on a number of factors, including the team's record, the individual players, promotions, etc. That is what fluctuates, and truthfully that is where they make their money.
The major question is how does moving leagues help or hurt that secondary core audience? That's the milti-million dollar question, and right now, no one really knows the answer. Everyone has theories, but it's not their money they are gambling with so theories are easy. Despite the last six years, it is not an absolute given the Komets will make money no matter where they play. If that were true, Ken Ullyot and Colin Lister and Ernie Berg, and Harold Van Orman and Ray Perry and Bob Britt and David Welker and their families would all be a lot more well off than they are now. If that were true, the Frankes would not have lost millions in the late 1990s. This is a risky, riskey business that doesn't give many second chances.
The only constant in Fort Wayne is you better win and win big or you'll get punished for it at the box office. It's always been that way in every sport that ever played here, all the way back to before the Pistons. There's a reason why the Komets and the TinCaps are the only minor league teams to last more than 10 years in Fort Wayne, and I believe the TinCaps are on their third ownership group. Thank goodness for Mike Nutter.
I don't know what's going to happen. I don't think all the IHL owners have any idea right now what's going to happen because it seems to change week-to-week depending on which reporter they have talked to most recently. I've said this before: They're going to wait until the last possible second and then pick whichever option looks best to them at that moment because right now, none of them do. There are no perfect, absolute right answers in any of this.
