Tough call

The Atlantic turns to Indiana's GOP primary contest between longtime incumbent U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar and tea party-backed challenger state Treasurer Richard Mourdock:

WHO WILL WIN? As Indiana's current state treasurer, Mourdock has a better resume than Tea Party Express's previous success stories. Miller, Angle, and O'Donnell won their primaries with no state governing or legislative experience. They toed the tea-party line as substitutes for its ideology.

Lugar has represented Indiana for 34 years -- longer than the most notable Republican senators bounced by tea partiers in 2010, Utah's Bob Bennett (18 years) and Alaska's Murkowski (12 years). But in bouts between the seasoned pro and the hot young upstart, things can go either way. Ali lost to Frazier in their first encounter.

Still, the 79-year-old Lugar should hit the gym, jump some rope, and try to revive his right hook.

So, basically, too early to tell and too tough to call. I agree. Lugar has often been called Indiana's most-beloved politician, and that's probably right. But as this piece notes, he is the longest-serving senator and the last of the old guard, and these are unsettling times. If I had to give an edge to somebody, right now I'd probably pick Lugar, but ask me again next week. A lot will depend on how much money Mourdock can raise and how well he can spend it?