I've been staying away from the Valerie Plame/Karl Rove story in part because it's just politics as usual and in part because it's so convoluted it's hard to fathom. People who have followed it far more than I have admit to not understanding it. So I have just been content to watch the investigation go where it goes and let the chips fall where they may.
But it occurred to me that others might like to actually know where the chips will fall, so I did a little experiment. I drew two rectangles on a paper towel. In one I wrote, "Rove smelling like a rose," which means the summer game of political gotcha will just go away. In the other I wrote, "Bush caves," which means Rove will be thrown to the wolves and administration critics will score a big victory. Then I stood over the paper towel with a handful of my official World Poker Tour poker chips and let them drop.
So there you have it. Scientific proof that Rove comes out smelling like a rose.