It's the stupid economy

The Christian Science Monitor focuses on Indiana's 2nd Congressional District in a piece explaining that, the voters' displeasure with Iraq notwithstanding, "the economy" is still a powerful force in the upcoming election:

Still, this area feels the pressure of pocketbook issues. People complain about a spike in property taxes. And at a time of concern about global competition, they're angry that the state recently moved to lease a key toll road to a foreign consortium. Mr. Chocola had no direct say on either of those matters, but that doesn't mean he can escape voter frustration.

In the nearby city of Kokomo, at the southern edge of this district, auto-parts giant Delphi plans to shed hundreds of workers soon. To emerge from bankruptcy, the company says it will have to cut worker pay.

Such challenges make the economy a big issue for Dale Cooper, who retired from a union job at Bendix, a brake manufacturer, which was once one of South Bend's biggest employers.

"You have many people working, but they're making less money," he says. "It's almost a necessity for both [spouses] to work."

It's a bit of a conundrum for Republicans, that the economy should be such an issue when it is really doing quite well by most historical measures. Some chalk it up to the "liberal bias" of the media, which leads them to overemphasize good economic news when it benefits Democrats and stress the bad news when it hurts Republicans. Though there's some truth in this, I think there's more to it than that.

"The economy" may get told as a national story, but to real people living real lives, it's a local and personal story (Leo's new maxim: All economics are local). It doesn't matter what the aggregate picture is if you're feeling yourself stretched thin or know someone who is. Someone who has to work two jobs to make ends meet doesn't give a rip how many jobs have been created in the last month or year. And even if you think the economy is pretty good, it's hard not to feel unsettled in unsettling times. Technology is changing everything. The service sector is becoming more important, the manufacturing one less. Globalism is a fact of life -- capital increasingly is going where it can get the most return, without regard to political boundaries.

Although this uncertainty will tend to hurt the party perceived as having the power of the moment, it is becoming increasingly clear that our elected officials have much less control over things than they cliam to or we might wish them to have.