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Opening Arguments

Too soon to poll

Further evidence that journalism by opinion poll has gotten completely out of hand:

A Newsweek poll finds 86 percent of registered voters say they would back a qualified woman nominated by their party. For a black person, 93 percent say they would be willing to back the candidate.

[. . .]

Clinton remains the front-runner, but Obama has vaulted to the second tier with 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards. Head to head, Clinton beats Obama 50 percent to 38 percent, Newsweek said.

So, people are slightly more willing to vote for a "qualified black" than they are a "qualified woman," but when asked about real people, they pick Clinton over Obama by a comfortable margin. That makes absolutely no sense, which is par for the course for polls this far ahead of the actual event being asked about. I suspect that, if Democrats were choosing a candidate today, they'd pick Obama -- fresh face beats status-quo fatigue in the current climate. But the election isn't today -- when a choice does have to be made, voters will act based on conditions we don't even know about yet.

As to when a black or woman will be president -- when, not if -- that also will be determined by the world as it is when one is a major-party candidate, and on who the candidate's opponent happens to be. I suspect that many of those in the 90-percent range now claiming they are ready to vote for a black or a woman are just saying what they think they're supposed to say. We're never had anything but a white male professing Chritianity as president, and that will be a hard habit for many voters to break.

Comments

Steve Towsley
Tue, 12/19/2006 - 9:19pm

I think I have to give better odds to women and African Americans (and certain other minorities, though I wouldn't yet say there's a blank check in public opinion).

I can easily imagine, for example, a Hillary Clinton vs. Elizabeth Dole race, though the time is now late for that to develop, probably.

There are without doubt pockets of resistance and various corners of the nation where Americans can't transition so easily, and I would not rush to judge, but I think the majority of America has already intellectually turned the corner. I think that now we all know that it's only a matter of awaiting a truly qualified candidate.

As for the tread-worn Clintons, I would make these miscellaneous observations:

The left can be counted on to remain congenitally blind and deaf to Hillary's main political millstone these days -- the career philanderer and sometime spouse, William Jefferson Steele Rod Peter Shaft Stone Johnson Dandy-Randy Slick-Willie, Pork 'n Turkey and Ultimately-Mickey-Mouse Clinton.

Most of us outside the liberal faithful can't ignore the back-breaking load that He of the Easy Zipper would hang on a Hillary Clinton White House.

One can't help but wonder what new affronts the Lincoln bedroom would be subjected to, and how the First Gentleman would amuse himself during those long days in the residence.

Where the presidential future of the Clintons is concerned, I believe Bill has torpedoed Hillary for good, short of divorce.

So let it be written. Hillary will have to settle for senator.

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