• Twitter
  • Facebook
News-Sentinel.com Your Town. Your Voice.
Opening Arguments

A two-termer?

Depressing:

We're at the halfway mark of Barack Obama's first term as president.  I say "first term" because I'm confident that this isn't his last.  Conservatives will not want to hear this, but I've felt all along that Obama will be a two-term president, and nothing I've seen dispels that notion. My thinking is grounded primarily in two sets of data.

The first is expressed in the title of this article: 40 percent.  President Barack Obama does not dip below 40-percent approval.  Period.

[. . .]

It will be difficult to defeat a presidential incumbent who can't seem to ever slip below 40 percent and, in essence, merely needs to muster another 10 percent at election time.

[. . .]

If Americans were willing to elect a man as far to the left as Obama in November 2008 -- despite his background, his remarkably radical associations, and his highly troubling and still mysterious background -- enough of them will again.

Finally, that brings me to my second set of data: Obama is again surging in the polls, just when it looked like he might dip below 40 percent.  (I recall one poll had him momentarily at 39 percent.)  As I write, Obama's RealClearPolitics cumulative job approval is 51%.  Yes, 51 percent.

That's stunning.  After everything that has happened during this man's presidency, from nearly $1 trillion in blown stimulus to nationalizing GM to persistent 10-percent unemployment, and after the Democrats' trouncing in the November midterm, how could Obama suddenly pop above 50%?

With few exceptions, most presidential elections seem to turn on how the economy is doing, or how the public thinks its doing, in the months leading up to the election. I'm not sure Obama's base is that strong, enough for him to be able to withstand even a recession and persistently high unemployment.

Comments

Kevin Knuth
Thu, 01/27/2011 - 12:22pm

There really are two key issues.

If Obama keeps his numbers ABOVE 50% it will be nearly impossible to beat him- historically that has proven to be true.

Secondly, the challenge for the GOP is to show results- and that means they have to work WITH the Democrats (Senate and Obama)- so it makes it harder for them to blame him for what happens.

At this point, the only Republican that I think has a shot is Romney- but the Christian Right wants no part of a Mormon in the Oval Office.

tim zank
Thu, 01/27/2011 - 12:27pm

While history is a guide, it doesn't always repeat itself. Though his "poll" numbers may indicate to some he's "invincible" there remains a big difference in what people say and what they do.

He's a likeable guy to a lot of people, but even likeable guys get thrown under the bus when their performance is lacking, or in this case damaging.

A lot can and will happen (and none of it positive for this country as it's mathematically impossible) in the next 22 months to justify not re-hiring Teh One.

Harl Delos
Thu, 01/27/2011 - 7:32pm

Part of the reason Barack's numbers are high is that nobody in either party looks like an attractive alternative.

If Republican and Democratic candidates get the same popular vote, the GOP should win, because small states get more electoral votes per voter - but in the 11 elections since 1968 when Nixon proposed the "Southern Strategy", only 3 were won with more than 51.5% of the popular vote - and there were 3 won with less than 50%.

Quantcast