If the economy doesn't improve, President Obama will be in re-election trouble, especially if he faces Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, two Republicans with executive experience who are stressing jobs as an issue. But some Republicans are still unhappy with the prospect of one of those two winning the nomination and are trying to persuade House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan to run. That could be a mistake. Ryan is the one person most associated with the fight to reduce the size of federal government, and that could give Obama a chance to change the focus of the campaign:
A Ryan candidacy would highlight a schism of sorts inside the GOP. Republicans won last year's midterm election on a platform of jobs, jobs, jobs. Yet they have spent much of this year trying to cut federal spending. And that has sparked an internal debate over whether the party is on the right track.
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Ryan is perhaps the single Republican most associated with the cause of reducing government spending. Until now, most Republican presidential candidates have been hesitant to fully embrace Ryan's budget plan, which among its many proposals calls for a voucherlike program to reform Medicare. If Ryan were in the race, there would be one candidate running wholeheartedly on the budget; if he were the nominee, the Ryan plan would be the Republican Party platform.
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In 2008 voters elected Obama to fix the economy, and he spent much of his time on Obamacare. In 2010 they elected Republicans to fix the economy, and they spent much of their time on the deficit. Will any candidate in 2012 address their concerns?
Is that a valid concern? I have mixed feelings. Reducing the size of the federal government has been a big deal for me most of my adult life, so I'm glad to see the conversation finally getting to the right place on government spending. On the other hand, I have a job, so I can afford to concentrate on the bigger picture.
I happen to be one of those who agree with Ryan that cutting back on government would be good for the economy in the long run, but that's a hard sell. If Ryan gets is the nominees, he wil have to be successful at defining his budget plan as a good plan for the economy, and as one observer notes in the column, "It would have to be a really, really good speeech."
