A poll of likely Republican voters by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics confirms the consensus that had been reached by political observers: In the GOP primary, it's essentially a two-person race for mayor:
The April 18 random survey of 621 registered voters found that 41.3 percent would vote for Brown, 34.6 percent for former Allen County Councilwoman Paula Hughes and 14.7 percent for businessman Eric Doden. Fred Osheskie Jr. received 1.6 percent, Terrence Richard Walker 0.3 percent and 7.5 percent remained undecided.
The poll noted, however, that its margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 points, “making it the narrowest of leads for Brown.”
There is some bad news lurking in here for Republicans, I think. Only 41 percent agree that Fort Wayne "has gone off the track" under Democratic Mayor Tom Henry, while an identical 41 percent think the city is headed in the right directrion. If this is all the discontent there is among "likely Republican voters," an ouster of Henry does not seem likely.
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"The city is headed in the right direction"
That's an extremely vague statement to use as an indicator of how people will vote.
Maybe they like Henry as Mayor. Maybe they like the Republican majority on council. Maybe they like the way the fiscal conservatives (generally the Republicans minus Bender plus Shoaff) try to hold the administration accountable for our dollars. Or maybe they're fed up with all the current "leaders", but they are convinced that Mr. Eberhard will win the next election and they see this as being a move in the right direction.