• Twitter
  • Facebook
News-Sentinel.com Your Town. Your Voice.
Opening Arguments

Down for the count

I hate to disagree with someone as politically astute as Andy Downs, but, well, I disagree with him:

The buzz surrounding “Super Tuesday,” and the 419 Republican delegates that go along with it, raises a question that comes up almost every presidential cycle: Will Indiana still matter by the time the nomination fight gets here in May?

The short answer – and the one state party officials likely don't want to hear – is no, according to some political analysts.

“There is a high probability that Indiana's influence in the presidential nominating process this year will be minimal to none,” said Andy Downs, director of the Downs Center for Indiana Politics at IPFW.

The truth is that it takes 1,144 delegates to win the nomination, and we have only 46, so do the math; a candidate can county on us for only about 4 percent of what he needs, whatever the circumstances. How much that 4 percent is treasured depends on what the count is by the time we have our primary. Andy is right that Romney might have it sown up by then, when there will be only 14 states left to go with 770 delegates up for grabs. But he might not. Since the GOP has changed the rules this year to allow choosing delegates proportionally, it's more likely that nobody will have the number needed by May.