Further evidence that journalism by opinion poll has gotten completely out of hand:
A Newsweek poll finds 86 percent of registered voters say they would back a qualified woman nominated by their party. For a black person, 93 percent say they would be willing to back the candidate.
[. . .]
Clinton remains the front-runner, but Obama has vaulted to the second tier with 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards. Head to head, Clinton beats Obama 50 percent to 38 percent, Newsweek said.
So, people are slightly more willing to vote for a "qualified black" than they are a "qualified woman," but when asked about real people, they pick Clinton over Obama by a comfortable margin. That makes absolutely no sense, which is par for the course for polls this far ahead of the actual event being asked about. I suspect that, if Democrats were choosing a candidate today, they'd pick Obama -- fresh face beats status-quo fatigue in the current climate. But the election isn't today -- when a choice does have to be made, voters will act based on conditions we don't even know about yet.
As to when a black or woman will be president -- when, not if -- that also will be determined by the world as it is when one is a major-party candidate, and on who the candidate's opponent happens to be. I suspect that many of those in the 90-percent range now claiming they are ready to vote for a black or a woman are just saying what they think they're supposed to say. We're never had anything but a white male professing Chritianity as president, and that will be a hard habit for many voters to break.
